Scenario Planning:
A Tool to Influence the Future
The future is not always predictable. We generally assume that the future will look much like the present, but this is not a practical model for business. Approaching the future without planning could result in irrecoverable damage. Scenario planning is the answer to this question – how to plan things for an uncertain future?
Scenario Planning is not forecasting the future, but being prepared to handle what the future may bring. This is also known as scenario thinking or scenario analysis. In short, scenario planning is the practice that some organizations use to implement flexible, result-oriented plans for the future.
American author and futurist Peter Schwartz describes scenario planning as ‘Stories that can help us recognize and adapt to changing aspects of our present environment. They form a method for articulating the different pathways that might exist for you tomorrow, and finding your appropriate movements down each of those possible paths’.
Scenario planning includes strategy planning, leadership development, effective resource utilization and risk management, among others. There are four important steps in good scenario planning: (1) identifying driving forces, (2) identifying critical uncertainties, (3) developing plausible scenarios and (4) implementing the scenarios as applicable. It is a common practice that leading oil and gas companies will send their strategic planning teams for oil and gas training courses because they realize the importance and benefits of scenario planning. Oil and gas seminars happening around the world is meant to empower employees with necessary skills and knowledge to lead the organization into profit.
“Scenario planning is a discipline for rediscovering the entrepreneurial power of creative foresight in contexts of accelerated change, greater complexity and genuine uncertainty.” – Pierre Wack
A good strategist should keep in mind that the problem with the future is that it is different. If you don’t have different plans or if you don’t think differently, the future could throw you on unexpected surprise. Arriving at scenarios is like looking through an unclear windshield and assuming objects on the road. This method just doesn’t focus on a single plan, but creates multiple paths to reach the organizational objective.
Scenario planning deals with two aspects – the world of facts and the world of perceptions. Planners use the available facts and data to aim at the uncertain world of perceptions. They do not make predictions about the future, because a misleading prediction can lead to a shutdown. 70% of the organizations in the world make use of scenario planning for its strategic significance in molding the ‘modus operandi’.
Are you a strategic planner who is worried about the future of your organization? Do you work as an executive, analyst or consultant in the oil & gas industry? If you think that scenario planning is the solution to take your business successfully ahead, join PetroKnowledge’s upcoming course on Scenario Planning in the Oil and Gas Industry. PetroKnowledge is a leading name among the oil and gas training institutes in Dubai. This training course is designed exclusively for participants from the oil and gas industry which will be held in Amsterdam from 11 to 15 December 2017. Register now and become a scenario planning specialist.
