An Interactive 5-Day Training Course

Exploration Prospect Evaluation, Risking and Resource Estimation

Geological Chance of Success, Probabilistic Resource Volumes and Pre-Drill Assessment

Exploration Prospect Evaluation, Risking and Resource Estimation

Scheduled Dates

21 - 25 Jun 2027
London - UK
$6,950
15 - 19 Nov 2027
London - UK
$6,950

Why Choose this Training Course?

This PetroKnowledge Exploration Prospect Evaluation, Risking and Resource Estimation training course helps exploration professionals assess undrilled oil and gas prospects, estimate potentially recoverable resources and explain the uncertainties behind their findings. Participants will learn how to bring geological interpretation, seismic evidence, well data and analogue information into a consistent pre-drill assessment. The training course addresses questions that exploration teams face every day: Is the reservoir likely to be present? Has sufficient hydrocarbon charge reached the trap? Does the seismic evidence support the interpretation? Which assumptions have the greatest influence on estimated resource volumes?

The training course follows the prospect evaluation process from defining a potential accumulation to preparing its geological risk assessment and probabilistic resource estimate. Participants will examine reservoir, charge, trap and seal risks; select appropriate volumetric inputs; and interpret Monte Carlo simulation results. Relevant Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) principles provide the basis for distinguishing prospective resources from discovered resources and reserves. Geological chance of discovery is considered separately from uncertainty in recoverable quantities and the chance of development. Practical exercises help participants identify unsupported assumptions, avoid double-counting evidence and prepare prospect evaluations that colleagues can review and challenge.

This Exploration Prospect Evaluation, Risking and Resource Estimation training course will highlight:

  • Defining exploration prospects from geological and geophysical evidence
  • Assessing geological chance of discovery and petroleum system risks
  • Estimating prospective resources using probabilistic volumetric methods
  • Interpreting seismic indicators and dependencies between uncertainties
  • Preparing clear, traceable pre-drill prospect evaluation reports

What are the Goals?

By the end of this Exploration Prospect Evaluation, Risking and Resource Estimation training course, participants will be able to:

  • Distinguish petroleum plays, leads, prospects and discovered accumulations
  • Integrate geological, seismic, well and analogue evidence into prospect assessments
  • Assign geological risk factors using documented technical reasoning
  • Build volumetric models with appropriate input ranges and dependencies
  • Interpret P90, P50, P10, mean volumes and sensitivity results
  • Assess the strengths and limitations of seismic hydrocarbon indicators
  • Present prospect evaluation findings with clear assumptions and qualifications

Who is this Training Course for?

The Exploration Prospect Evaluation, Risking and Resource Estimation training course is designed for petroleum exploration professionals involved in prospect identification, subsurface evaluation, geological risking or pre-drill resource assessment.

  • Exploration Geologists and Senior Petroleum Geologists
  • Exploration Geophysicists and Seismic Interpreters
  • Exploration Managers and Technical Team Leaders
  • Prospect Evaluation and Geological Risk Specialists
  • Petroleum Systems and Basin Analysis Professionals
  • Subsurface Evaluation and Technical Assurance Specialists
  • Reservoir Engineers Supporting Exploration Assessments
  • National Oil Company Exploration Teams
  • Exploration Portfolio Analysts with Technical Responsibilities
  • Upstream Petroleum Consultants and Regulatory Geoscientists

How will this Training Course be Presented?

Participants in this Exploration Prospect Evaluation, Risking and Resource Estimation training course will work through the main stages of a pre-drill prospect evaluation, from reviewing geological evidence to interpreting resource estimates. Practical tasks will address prospect definition, geological risk factors, spreadsheet-based volumetric calculations and probabilistic modelling. Each assessment will require participants to record their assumptions, consider alternative interpretations and explain how uncertainty affects the results. The final exercise brings these elements together in a prospect evaluation summary supported by a geological risk assessment and prospective resource estimate.

Organisational Impact

Organisations will benefit from professionals who can:

  • Apply consistent methods across prospect evaluations
  • Make geological assumptions easier to review and challenge
  • Use analogue evidence to support risk calibration
  • Recognise bias and duplicated geological risk factors
  • Compare prospects using clearly stated technical assumptions
  • Prepare more informative pre-drill technical reports

Personal Impact

Participants attending this Exploration Prospect Evaluation, Risking and Resource Estimation training course will develop their ability to:

  • Evaluate geological evidence with greater confidence
  • Explain the reasoning behind prospect risk estimates
  • Select defensible volumetric input ranges
  • Interpret probabilistic resource estimates accurately
  • Recognise the limitations of seismic indicators
  • Present technical findings clearly during peer reviews

Daily Agenda

Day 1: Petroleum Systems and Exploration Prospect Definition
  • Petroleum plays, leads, prospects and exploration maturity
  • Petroleum system elements and hydrocarbon accumulation processes
  • Reservoir distribution, trap geometry, seal and charge relationships
  • Integrating seismic, structural, geological and analogue information
  • Practical exercise: defining a prospect and recording its principal uncertainties
Day 2: Geological Chance of Discovery and Prospect Risking

  • Geological chance of discovery and risk-factor definitions
  • Reservoir presence and effectiveness, charge, trap and seal risks
  • Play-level and prospect-specific risks, including dependencies
  • Calibration against analogues and historical exploration outcomes
  • Practical exercise: constructing and challenging a geological risk assessment
Day 3: Probabilistic Prospective Resource Estimation

  • Volumetric estimation for undrilled oil and gas prospects
  • Geological input ranges, volumetric parameters and recovery assumptions
  • Probability distributions, correlations and Monte Carlo simulation
  • P90, P50, P10 and mean volumes, exceedance curves and sensitivity interpretation
  • Practical exercise: producing a probabilistic prospective resource assessment
Day 4: Seismic Evidence and Integrated Geological Risk

  • Seismic amplitude responses and direct hydrocarbon indicators
  • AVO interpretation, fluid effects and geological ambiguity
  • Integrating seismic observations with geological and well evidence
  • Evaluating evidence dependencies, alternative interpretations and risk calibration
  • Practical exercise: updating prospect risk based on additional technical evidence
Day 5: Prospect Evaluation Integration and Technical Assurance

  • Integrating petroleum system assessments and probabilistic resource estimates
  • Identifying material geological uncertainties and critical data gaps
  • Reporting conditional resource distributions and chance-of-discovery assumptions
  • Technical peer review, uncertainty communication and quality assurance
  • Integrated workshop: preparing and defending a pre-drill prospect evaluation

Certificate

  • Upon successful completion of this training course, delegates will be awarded an official PetroKnowledge Certificate of Completion, signed by the course facilitator. The certificate confirms successful participation and records the total learning hours completed.
  • Continuing Professional Education credits (CPE): In accordance with the standards of the National Registry of CPE Sponsors, one CPE credit is granted per 50 minutes of attendance.

Accreditation

NASBA Approved Training Courses

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Frequently Asked Questions

You will learn how to define an undrilled oil or gas prospect, assess its geological chance of discovery and estimate its potentially recoverable resources. The training course covers geological risking, probabilistic volumetric estimation, seismic evidence and technical reporting. It also develops your ability to explain why particular assumptions were selected and where the evaluation remains uncertain.

The training course is designed for exploration geologists, geophysicists, prospect evaluation specialists and subsurface professionals involved in pre-drill assessments. It is also relevant to exploration managers, technical assurance specialists and reservoir engineers who review geological risks or resource estimates. A working understanding of petroleum geology or exploration workflows is recommended.

The training course examines the geological conditions required for a petroleum accumulation, including reservoir presence and effectiveness, hydrocarbon charge, trap and seal. Participants will assess the supporting evidence, document the reasoning behind risk estimates and consider dependencies between factors. Analogue information and previous exploration outcomes are used to examine whether assigned probabilities are reasonable.

Yes. The training course covers volumetric methods for estimating petroleum potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations. Participants will examine geological input ranges, reservoir and fluid parameters, recovery assumptions and correlations. The emphasis is on producing an explainable range of resource estimates and identifying which assumptions have the greatest influence on the results.

The Exploration Prospect Evaluation, Risking and Resource Estimation training course explains how Monte Carlo simulation uses repeated sampling of uncertain inputs to generate a distribution of possible resource volumes. Participants will examine input distributions, correlations, output curves and sensitivity results. Particular attention is given to the geological reasoning behind the model, because simulation results are only as credible as the assumptions used to produce them.

Yes. Participants will learn to interpret P90 as a low volume estimate with a 90% probability of being equalled or exceeded, P50 as the median and P10 as a high estimate with a 10% probability of being equalled or exceeded. For prospective resources, these estimates must be presented with their discovery and development assumptions. They do not represent the probability that drilling will discover hydrocarbons.

Discovery risk concerns whether the geological conditions required for a petroleum accumulation are present. Resource uncertainty concerns the potentially recoverable quantities under stated assumptions. Participants will learn to report geological chance of discovery separately from the conditional resource distribution, helping reviewers understand both the possibility of failure and the range of potential volumes.

Yes. Relevant PRMS principles are used to explain resource classification and reporting. Prospective resources relate to undiscovered accumulations, whereas reserves require discovery and a commercial recovery project that meets the applicable criteria. The training course focuses on prospective resource estimation and the assumptions needed to communicate pre-drill quantities responsibly.

Yes. The Exploration Prospect Evaluation, Risking and Resource Estimation training course examines seismic amplitude responses, direct hydrocarbon indicators and amplitude variation with offset. Participants will consider how rock properties, fluid effects, data quality and geological setting influence interpretation. The emphasis is on checking seismic observations against other evidence and recognising when an apparent indicator could have an alternative explanation.

Participants will define a prospect, prepare a geological risk assessment and develop a probabilistic prospective resource estimate. They will also reassess geological risk when additional evidence becomes available. The final task combines these elements into a pre-drill evaluation summary that records assumptions, identifies important uncertainties and supports technical peer review.

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