An Intensive 5-day Training Course
Exploration Valuation and Decision Analysis
The Art and Science of Prudent Exploration Decisions
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Why Choose this Training Course?
Finding hydrocarbon resources is an uncertain business. While historically most wildcat wells became dry holes, some successful wells have led to discoveries that changed the course of business. With such uncertain outcomes, how do we know an exploration opportunity is a good venture? This PetroKnowledge training course discusses the skills and analytical tools that answer this question.
A good exploration decision is multi-dimensional; it is about understanding disciplines from subsurface to commercial; a wide coverage that eventually reflect our understanding about value potentials of exploration decisions. Our focus will therefore be on “value” rather than the generally desired “volume.” We will discuss value drivers for exploration drilling, from the usual suspects—chance of success and oil prices—to the less tangible subject of value of information. We use economic and analysis tools that support good decision-making.
This PetroKnowledge training course will highlight following:
- Petroleum Exploration Value Chain, Uncertainties, and Decisions
- Principles of Economic Decision Analysis
- Challenges of Investment Under Uncertainty
- Analytical Tools, including Bayesian probabilities, Monte Carlo Simulation, and Decision Trees
- Case Studies in Valuation and Decision Making for Wildcat Wells, Appraisal Wells, and Multi-Prospect Exploration Plays
What are the Goals?
We will cover the art and science of valuation in hydrocarbon exploration. Our goal is to familiarize the participants with an understanding of uncertainties, decisions, and consistent valuation of exploration opportunities. In addition, we discuss the analytical tools that support exploration decision making.
At the end of this PetroKnowledge training course, you will learn to:
- Understand the concept of economic value in hydrocarbon exploration
- Analyze the relevant sources of uncertainty: including geological, technical, operational, market, and regulatory risks, and explore risk mitigation strategies
- Use decision analysis frameworks and tools such as decision trees, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, and real options analysis to evaluate investment decisions under uncertainty and optimize exploration strategies
- Gain skills in implementation of analytical tools such as reserve-based valuation, probabilistic resource assessment, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques
- Learn about industry best practice: Develop skills in evaluating exploration prospects, conducting economic feasibility studies, and making informed investment decisions
Who is this Training Course for?
This Exploration Valuation and Decision Analysis training course is useful for Analysts, Engineers, and Managers involved in the process of exploration decision making, as well as professionals interested in practice of oil and gas exploration business.
This PetroKnowledge training course is suitable to a wide range of professionals but will greatly benefit:
- Technical Staff interested in decision-making side of exploration
- Commercial Staff interested in gaining in-depth knowledge of valuation and analysis
- Managers involved in exploration decisions
- Researchers and Practitioners who aim to broaden their knowledge of exploration valuation
- Managers in industries and professions supplying or serving the industry who would like a deeper understanding of oil and gas, e.g., Bankers, Lawyers, Analysts, Service Majors, etc
- Project Managers, Engineers, Planners & Scheduling Professionals
How will this Training Course be Presented?
This Exploration Valuation and Decision Analysis training course is designed to provide a comprehensive learning experience that integrates the instructor's firsthand experience in international energy companies with a robust theoretical framework. Drawing from years of practical experience in the energy sector, the instructor brings real-world insights and industry best practices to the discussions. This practical knowledge is complemented by a strong theoretical background in petroleum economics, risk analysis, decision sciences, and valuation methods, ensuring that participants gain a deep understanding of both the conceptual underpinnings and practical applications of petroleum exploration valuation and decision analysis. Through interactive lectures, case studies, and hands-on exercises, participants will have the opportunity to apply theoretical concepts to real-world scenarios, enhancing their analytical skills and decision-making capabilities in the dynamic and complex energy industry.
Organisational Impact
Primarily, all oil and gas firms run businesses. For them, creating value is the goal. With uncertain subsurface opportunities and market trends, those firms that understand good decision making and invest in valuable ventures will be poised to succeed in this evolving landscape.
This PetroKnowledge training course trains individuals that:
- Increase organisation’s capabilities in creating investments insights
- Possess knowledge and skills to deal with investments in uncertain environments
- Are effective in enhancing value chain in exploration
- Open doors to further opportunities and more informed exploration decisions
- Understand trends in carbon emissions and environmental considerations
- Create value through prudent exploration investment decisions
Personal Impact
In general, gaining knowledge and skills in valuation and decision-making opens one’s perspectives. In the oil and gas exploration context, the set of skills and knowledge that this training course offers prepares individuals for a more effective role within the process of corporate decision making.
This PetroKnowledge training course will:
- Prepare individuals for a role with wider perspective
- Give participants a more informed frame of mind
- Support their existing knowledge and skill set with analytical capabilities
- Enable participants to analyze complex investment decisions and generate insights
- Promote personal skills in valuation and effective decision making
Daily Agenda
Day One: Drilling for Success
- Exploration value chain
- Commercial considerations in exploration decisions
- Global business of energy: future trends in petroleum exploration
- Decision making for economic value creation
- Decision analysis, economics, and uncertainties, why we use “expected value”
Day Two: Techno-Economic Valuations
- Uncertainties: using probability to encode uncertainty
- Geological uncertainty and probabilistic reserves
- Monte Carlo simulation to analyze hydrocarbon reserves
- The conventional and non-conventional reserves: the effect of prices and technology
- Value creation in the upstream petroleum industry
Day Three: Implementation of the Concepts
- Oil Prices, the role of markets, corporate prices
- Market risk and the discount rate
- The effect of time and risk discounting
- A brief introduction to the capital asset pricing model
- Practical aspects of exploration decisions
Day Four: Analytical Tools for Exploration Decision Support
- Decision trees; how to model exploration opportunities
- Conditional probabilities
- Introduction to Bayes theorem; examples of conditional probability
- How price forecasts from the markets inform economic valuations
- Value of information analysis
Day Five: Emerging Concepts in Petroleum Exploration
- Exploration for success: a long-term game with portfolio of opportunities
- Environmental considerations and emission trading schemes
- Concluding remarks: does “Fortune Favor the Bold”
Certificate
- On successful completion of this Training Course / Online Training Course, a PetroKnowledge Certificate / E-Certificate will be awarded to the delegates.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why PetroKnowledge?
PetroKnowledge is a globally recognized provider of training courses for oil and gas professionals, offering a wide range of specialized training courses designed to enhance knowledge, skills, and expertise in the energy sector. With courses tailored to meet the evolving demands of the oil and gas industry, PetroKnowledge helps professionals stay up-to-date with industry standards, technological advancements, and best practices.
Who are these training courses designed for?
Our courses are specifically developed for professionals in the oil and gas industry, including engineers, technical staff, managers, and other specialists looking to advance their careers. Whether you’re a seasoned expert or new to the sector, our training for oil and gas professionals is suited to individuals at all stages of their professional journey.
Are the courses delivered online or in person?
PetroKnowledge offers flexible learning solutions with both online courses and in-person training options. Online courses for oil and gas professionals provide the flexibility to learn from anywhere, while in-person courses offer a hands-on, interactive learning environment. Each training course page provides detailed information on the delivery format, allowing you to choose the option that best meets your learning style and schedule
Can I get a customized training course for my team?
Yes, PetroKnowledge offers customized in-house training solutions for organizations looking to upskill their teams. We work closely with companies to design bespoke training courses for oil and gas professionals that address specific challenges and objectives. Whether you need on-site training or online solutions, we can tailor the training courses to suit your organization’s needs.
Are there any prerequisites for attending a course?
Certain advanced training courses for oil and gas professionals may require prior experience or technical knowledge. These prerequisites ensure that participants can fully benefit from the course content. We recommend reviewing the course description on the relevant page to determine if any prerequisites apply to your selected course.
How can I enroll in a course?
Enrolling in one of our training courses for oil and gas professionals is simple and convenient. Navigate to the specific course page, click “Enroll Now,” and complete the registration form. You will receive a confirmation email with further details on how to proceed.
You may also get in touch with our Registration Team on
+971 50 981 7386 | +971 2 557 7389 or send an email to [email protected]
When should I expect to receive confirmation of registration?
Upon successful registration online, enrolment on the respective training course will be confirmed by Registration Team by e-mail along with the invoice and joining instruction.
Will I receive a certificate after completing the course?
Yes, upon successful completion of our courses for professionals in the oil and gas industry, you will receive an industry-recognized certificate from PetroKnowledge. This certification is designed to validate your skills and knowledge and can significantly enhance your professional credentials, boosting your career prospects in the competitive oil and gas sector.
When and how do I arrange payments?
We offer two convenient payment options:
- Bank Transfer – You can make payment via bank transfer. Once your registration is confirmed, you will receive an invoice with the banking details for the transfer. We would require you to supply a swift copy for us to confirm receipt of funds.
- Payment Link – Alternatively, we provide a secure payment link that you can use to complete your payment after your registration has been confirmed.
What is the refund or cancellation policy?
Our refund and cancellation policy varies depending on the course and circumstances. Generally, cancellations made at least 21 days before the training are eligible for a refund, less any administrative fees. If you have any specific inquiries about the cancellation or refund, don’t hesitate to contact our support team, who can assist with your booking and cancellation queries.
Is there a discount for more than one registrant/course?
For corporate fees and group registration, please send your query to [email protected].