Exploration Valuation and Decision Analysis

An Intensive 3-day Training Course

Exploration Valuation and Decision Analysis

Exploration Valuation and Decision Analysis

Scheduled Dates


14 - 16 Oct 2024 Dubai - UAE $3,900 RESERVE A SEAT

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Why Choose this Training Course?

Finding hydrocarbon resources is an uncertain business. While historically most wildcat wells became dry holes, some successful wells have led to discoveries that changed the course of business. With such uncertain outcomes, how do we know an exploration opportunity is a good venture? This PetroKnowledge training course discusses the skills and analytical tools that answer this question.

A good exploration decision is multi-dimensional;  it is about understanding disciplines from subsurface to commercial; a wide coverage that eventually reflect our understanding about value potentials of exploration decisions. Our focus will therefore be on “value” rather than the generally desired “volume.” We will discuss value drivers for exploration drilling, from the usual suspects—chance of success and oil prices—to the less tangible subject of value of information. We use economic and analysis tools that support good decision-making.

This PetroKnowledge training course will highlight:

  • Exploration Value Chain, Uncertainties, and Decisions
  • Principles of Economic Decision Analysis
  • Challenges of Investment Under Uncertainty
  • Analytical tools, including Bayesian probabilities and decision trees
  • Practical applications (case studies in value of appraisal wells and multi-prospect exploration)

What are the Goals?

We will cover the art and science of valuation in hydrocarbon exploration. Our goal is to familiarize the participants with an understanding of uncertainties, decisions, and consistent valuation of exploration opportunities. In addition, we discuss the analytical tools that support exploration decision making.

At the end of this PetroKnowledge training course, you will learn to:

  • Understand the concept of value in hydrocarbon exploration
  • Understand the relevant sources of uncertainty
  • Gain skills in effective formulation of exploration decisions
  • Gain skills in implementation of analytical tools
  • Learn about industry best practice through case studies

Who is this Training Course for?

This PetroKnowledge training course is useful for analysts, engineers, and managers involved in the process of exploration decision making, as well as professionals interested in practice of oil and gas exploration business.

This PetroKnowledge training course is suitable to a wide range of professionals but will greatly benefit: 

  • Technical staff interested in decision-making side of exploration
  • Commercial staff interested in gaining in-depth knowledge of valuation and analysis
  • Managers involved in exploration decisions
  • Researchers and practitioners who aim to broaden their knowledge of exploration valuation

How will this Training Course be Presented?

We use a series of lectures and discussions to present the concepts and material. Valuation and decision making are practical disciplines, therefore, in addition to the lectures we also undertake computer modeling and analysis.

To support the lectures, we will also supply the participants with a series of videos, course slides, and supplementary reading material helping the learning process.

Organisational Impact

Primarily, all oil and gas firms run a business. For them, creating value is the goal. With uncertain subsurface opportunities, those firms that understand good decision making and invest in valuable ventures will be poised to succeed in this uncertain industry. This PetroKnowledge training course trains individuals that:

  • Increase organization’s capabilities in creating investments insights
  • Possess knowledge and skills to deal with investments in uncertain environments
  • Are effective in enhancing value chain in exploration
  • Open doors to further opportunities and more informed exploration decisions

Personal Impact

In general, gaining knowledge and skills in valuation and decision-making opens one’s perspectives. In the oil and gas exploration context, the set of skills and knowledge that this course offers prepares individuals for a more effective role within the process of corporate decision making. This PetroKnowledge training course will:

  • Prepare individuals for a role with wider perspective
  • Give participants a more informed frame of mind
  • Support their existing knowledge and skill set with analytical capabilities
  • Enable participants to analyze complex investment decisions and generate insights
  • Promote personal skills in valuation and effective decision making

Daily Agenda

Day One: Drilling for Success: Principles 
  • Exploration Value Chain
  • Commercial considerations
  • Decision Making for Value Creation
  • decision analysis, economics, and uncertainties, why we use expected value?
  • Uncertainties: using probability to encode uncertainty
Day Two: Techno-Economic Valuations 
  • Oil Prices, the role of markets, corporate prices
  • Market risk and the discount rate
  • The effect of time and risk discounting
  • A brief introduction to the Capital Asset Pricing Model
  • Practical aspects of exploration decisions
Day Three: Implementation of the Concepts 
  • Decision Trees; how to model exploration opportunities
  • Conditional Probabilities
  • Introduction to Bayes theorem; examples of conditional probability
  • Value of Information; what is the value of seismic information?
  • Case studies; value of appraisal wells, sequential exploration, and waiting options


  • On successful completion of this Training Course / Online Training Course, a PetroKnowledge Certificate / E-Certificate will be awarded to the delegates.

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Frequently Asked Questions

  • To register online through our website, please click “Enroll Now” on the course page, complete and submit the form. A confirmation e-mail and instructions will be sent to the participant’s e-mail.
  • You may also get in touch with our Registration Team on
    +971 50 981 7386 | +971 2 557 7389 or send an email to reg@petroknowledge.com

  • Payments can be made in USD or UAE local currency AED (Arab Emirates Dirhams) either by Bank Transfer or by Credit Card. Our Bank Account details will be provided on the invoice.
  • Course fees are payable upon booking unless a valid, authorized Purchase Order is provided and accepted.
  • Invoices will be sent via email/courier to the ID/name and address provided.
  • The course fee shall be settled prior to course start date. Corporate payments with existing payment policy shall be relayed to us in advance.

Upon successful registration online, enrolment on the respective training course will be confirmed by Registration Team by e-mail along with the invoice and joining instruction.

For corporate fees and group registration, please send your query to info@petroknowledge.com.

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